TRB Pubsindex
Text Size:
x

« Prev Next »

Return to Results | New Search

Bookmark and Share

Title:

Investigation of Pavement Performance Index Through Application of a Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model: Case Study on Highways in Ontario, Canada

Accession Number:

01624212

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

Selection of appropriate Key Performance Indices (KPIs) and precise prediction of actual pavement condition are keys to a successful Pavement Management System (PMS). A cost-effective PMS requires that maintenance requirements are identified at the right time with the realistic prediction of overall pavement condition. For Ontario highways, several KPIs are used. These are pavement condition index (PCI), distress manifestation index (DMI), international roughness index (IRI), riding comfort index (RCI), etc. Generally, KPI models are developed by regressing the individual KPI values against independent variables. The prediction models are estimated by using the ordinary least square (OLS) approach. However, OLS may result in biased estimates if unobserved factors influencing individual KPIs are correlated. So, this paper proposes the use of an approach called the ‘Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR)' method instead. Historical pavement performance data recorded by the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario (MTO) are used to empirically test the proposed approach of KPI modeling. A total of sixty-one road segments are selected for empirical investigations. Empirical investigations clearly prove the existence of correlations among unobserved factors affecting KPIs and hence the value of the proposed SUR approach over the OLS method of KPI regression.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AFD10 Standing Committee on Pavement Management Systems. Alternate title: Investigation of Pavement Performance Index through Application of a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) Model: A Case Study on Ontario Highways.

Monograph Accession #:

01618707

Report/Paper Numbers:

17-02534

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Jannat, Gulfam E
Tighe, Susan L

Pagination:

20p

Publication Date:

2017

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2017-1-8 to 2017-1-12
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References; Tables

Geographic Terms:

Ontario (Province)

Subject Areas:

Highways; Pavements

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2017 Paper #17-02534

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Dec 8 2016 10:57AM