01626338

Component

A spatial economic framework for forecasting and policy analysis originally developed and mainly used in North America was applied to Caracas, Venezuela. This paper presents the application of the framework to analyze the spatial and economic implications of a policy of increasing public transit fares. The model shows the policy’s impact on the location of households and enterprises, as well as the impact on the spatial production and consumption of goods, services, labor and space. Changes in benefits are investigated, and are decomposed into components to identify the nature of winners and losers under the new scenario. Households responded to the higher transit fares by traveling less, and consuming services closer to home. Households out of poverty centralized, bidding up rents, leading to a decentralization of households in poverty, reinforcing socio-spatial segregation. Higher transport cost benefited some businesses by increasing their market dominance, however increases in wages paid counterpoise the higher commuting costs borne by employees. This test revealed how a model of interrelated spatial markets can help planners and policy makers understand potential and unexpected impacts in Caracas. This paper also identified the potential for improvements in the design of the model for Caracas. These would allow the Production, Exchange and Consumption Allocation System (PECAS) to serve as a more broadly applicable modelling framework for regions in developing countries

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AP030 Standing Committee on Public Transportation Marketing and Fare Policy.

01618707

17-01764

English

22p

2017

Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Businesses; Consumers surplus; Consumption; Developing countries; Economic models; Fares; Households; Impacts; Land use models; Location; Production; Public transit; Sensitivity analysis

PECAS (Computer model)

Spatial economic models

Caracas (Venezuela)

Economics; Finance; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2017 Paper #17-01764

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 8 2016 10:36AM