01630136

Component

The interdependence between residential location and vehicle ownership can vary over time partially due the changes in preferences and constraints. This may be particularly true in countries where rapid economic growth has continued. This study aims to investigate such dynamic interdependence between residential location and motorcycle ownership in Hanoi. For this purpose, the authors employ a conventional joint equation modeling framework with a simple modification on common random terms: the common random terms are parameterized as a function of time. The primary hypothesis to be tested is that the interdependence between the choices of motorcycle ownership and residence in urban fringe has been reinforced over time, presumably because of changes in people’s liking for living close to city center or liking for motorcycles. The empirical analysis is conducted with the small-scale data collected in Hanoi in 2011. The results indicate that the interdependence is strengthened over time, implying that unobserved self-selection effects can vary over time. This finding suggests that the changes in the degree of the interdependence may need to be considered particularly when the joint equation modeling framework is used for future prediction in cities where rapid economic growth can be expected.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABE90 Standing Committee on Transportation in the Developing Countries.

01618707

17-01489

English

15p

2017

Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Choice models; Motorcycles; Ownership; Residential location; Surveys; Urban areas

Hanoi (Vietnam)

Highways; Planning and Forecasting

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2017 Paper #17-01489

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 8 2016 10:29AM