01626273

Component

Modeling demand for the transport system requires development of complicated mathematical structures reflecting the response of users to the capacity and service provided in the transport network including the infrastructure and modes of transport. Such complicated competitive environment in which travelers try to achieve better service at lower cost can be evaluated from numerous angles when modeled. The classical travel demands are typically evaluated based on the fit to the observed origin-destination table (mostly unavailable), or the likelihood value of models used in the process of generating the origin-destination table. These conventional evaluation techniques do not assess the goodness-of-fit of the model in a robust way. This paper presents a graph-theoretic methodology to evaluate travel demand models. An innovative travel demand model, developed using several advanced data mining techniques, is considered for the evaluation exercise. Statistical and mathematical properties of the modeled networks are compared against the observed networks over time. Networks are constructed based on the trip origin-destination matrices. The proposed evaluation approach focuses on the network structure attributes reflecting network properties from many angles as means for evaluating the goodness-of-fit of the models that are not usually captured by traditional evaluation and validation methods. Results demonstrate the complexity involved in development, evaluation, and validation of travel demand models stressing on the need for using methods like the proposed approach in this study.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB40 Standing Committee on Transportation Demand Forecasting. Alternate title: Travel Demand Model Evaluation: Graph-Theoretic Approach

01618707

17-01302

English

15p

2017

Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Evaluation; Graph theory; Travel demand; Validation

Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General)

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2017 Paper #17-01302

PRP, TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 8 2016 10:24AM