01625858

Component

This paper presents the results of a choice experiment to evaluate the extent to which electric motorcycles are a potential replacement for gasoline-powered motorcycles in Solo, Indonesia. Survey respondents faced five choice scenarios where they selected between a conventional motorcycle, an electric motorcycle, and no motorcycle based on price, speed, range, and charge time. Approximately 1,200 completed all five choice scenarios and fully responded to socioeconomic and preference questions. As in much of Southeast Asia, motorcycles dominate the transportation system and provide inexpensive, relatively safe, and convenient point-to-point travel. However, motorcycles also produce substantial, harmful local emissions. To estimate the probability of selecting different motorcycle types, the survey data are fit with a mixed logit model with random coefficients. This specification allows correlation across choices over time, flexible substitution across the choice alternatives, and variation in consumer preferences. The results of the survey and analysis indicate that there is almost certainly a market for electric motorcycles but their price and performance will have to be competitive with low-cost, gas- powered ones. Speed, range, charge time, and price all mattered substantially with respondents willing to pay a 25% premium for motorcycles with 10 km longer range or 10 km/h faster speed. Charge time was particularly important, suggesting that improvements in battery charging technology and charging infrastructure could have a substantial impact on consumers’ willingness to adopt electric motorcycles. Younger non-smoking respondents with concerns about the environment and previous exposure to e- bikes were most likely to choose electric motorcycles.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABE90 Standing Committee on Transportation in the Developing Countries. Alternate title: Electric Vehicles, Air Pollution, and the Motorcycle City: Stated-Preference Survey of Consumers’ Willingness to Adopt Electric Motorcycles in Solo, Indonesia

01618707

17-00488

English

15p

2017

Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Consumer preferences; Electric vehicles; Motorcycles; Socioeconomic factors; Stated preferences

Indonesia

Environment; Highways; Society; Vehicles and Equipment

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2017 Paper #17-00488

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 8 2016 10:05AM