01595645

Component

Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is commonly used to prioritize investments. For transport projects, estimation of benefits and costs are normally based on a four-step transport model, originally designed for motorized transport. Trip assignment to the network (the fourth step) uses equilibrium principles based on capacity constraints, an approach inappropriate to represent behaviors of cyclists. To date there have been no statistically proven models published for assignment of cycling trips from an mode split matrix. This paper presents a methodology that combines geographic information systems (GIS) and discrete choice modeling to assign cycling trips to a transport network. The methodology requires a modal split origin-destination matrix (step three of the traditional model) as input. As a result, it estimates cycling volumes for each link of the network on a set of pre-identified routes. Parameters to characterize network links were developed based on a statistical model using results from a large-scale geographic survey of cycling routes in a case study in Bogota - Colombia. The methodology produced a certainty of% (R2 48 =0,6) when compared with field validation data. In the contrast, equilibrium algorithms based on shortest cost path used in the same case study only predicted 4% of cycling volumes when compared with the control data. Testing of the methodology in segments of the network with low cycling volumes and in other cities are opportunities for future research.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB40 Standing Committee on Transportation Demand Forecasting.

01584066

16-5692

English

11p

2016

Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Benefit cost analysis; Bicycling; Choice models; Geographic information systems; Routes and routing; Traffic assignment

Bogota (Colombia)

Operations and Traffic Management; Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2016 Paper #16-5692

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 12 2016 6:29PM