01590104

Component

In this paper the authors explore the longitudinal relationships among number of cars owned by households, number of trips driving alone, and number of trips sharing cars with household members. The authors use data from 230 households observed in ten different occasions (waves) from 1989 to 2002. The analysis reveals three classes (hidden Markov chains) of households underlying behavioral dynamics with increases in the low car ownership categories (zero and one car per household), decreases in the high car ownership (three cars and four or more cars per household) and stable behavior in the two cars per household group. Also, all three classes display decrease in the number of trips driving alone and one of the classes shows a clear increase in the number of trips with household members. These classes are significantly influenced by householder ratings to parking availability, schedule flexibility, bus transfers, and day-to-day costs of driving. Intra-household demographic changes (number of workers and coming of age of other children) and land use diversity around the household residence cause both adaptation and anticipation by households as they change behaviors. This implies that households not only adapt to internal and external changes to their environment but they also anticipate changes and go through a "preparation" stage (e.g., adding another car in their fleet in expectation of adding another employed person). Land use, although significant for some transitions, plays a somewhat secondary role. This also implies we need a more complex dynamic specification for models of car ownership and use than currently used in micro-simulators of travel demand. We also need repeated observations in the form of panel data surveys of the same households over time that are coupled with data about changes in the built environment surrounding the persons we track to analyze their behavior.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB10 Standing Committee on Traveler Behavior and Values. Alternate title: Behavioral Microdynamics of Car Ownership and Travel in the Seattle Metropolitan Region from 1989 to 2002.

01584066

16-0068

English

0000-0001-6324-6380

26p

2016

Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Automobile ownership; Demographics; Households; Land use; Markov chains; Travel behavior; Vehicle occupants

Seattle (Washington)

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2016 Paper #16-0068

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 12 2016 4:17PM