01553805

Component

Transportation megaprojects have recently addressed more and more public attentions due to large investment, advanced technologies and long-time construction. Tight schedules, multifunctional scopes, and colossal sizes usually characterize transportation megaprojects as challenging tasks for completion. Aligning with the original timeline could not only guarantee the missions that megaprojects usually hold to complete on time, but also save the public resources and protect civilian benefits. However, due to the long lifecycle and high investments in real practice, considerable uncertainties were added in transportation megaprojects. Schedule overrunning frequently occurred during the planning and construction phases, named the “megaproject paradox”. In order to address these situations, a schedule risk management method was developed in this paper based on the structural equation model. In the proposed method, risk identification, evaluation and response were arranged as a sequence, and the expert elicitation technique was adopted in order to quantify the schedule risk status. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model, a megaproject case in China, the Shanghai Hongqiao Integrated Transport Hub (SHITH), was chosen. Information within the expanded risk register was collected including the probability and consequence of risk events, the complexity of risk responsible owners, the reaction time, and the time lasting for risk countermeasures. Final risk control results showed that the method could not only address the schedule risks correlations effectively, but also maintained the simplicity for construction management practices.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AFH10 Construction Management. Alternate title: Managing Transportation Megaproject Schedule Risks Using Structural Equation Modeling: Case Study of Shanghai Hongqiao Integrated Transport Hub in China.

01550057

15-4660

English

17p

2015

Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Case studies; Construction scheduling; Delays; Hubs; Intermodal terminals; Megaprojects; Project management; Risk management; Structural equation modeling

Shanghai (China)

Administration and Management; Construction; Terminals and Facilities; Transportation (General); I50: Construction and Supervision of Construction

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2015 Paper #15-4660

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 30 2014 1:32PM