01550558

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2532-18

Evacuation is a typical recourse to prevent loss of life if a high storm surge occurs, especially in hurricane-prone regions. Bridges are the key locations of bottlenecks. Because of the specific geographic shape and roadway network of Miami Beach, Florida, residents need to evacuate over one of the six major bridges or causeways: MacArthur Causeway, Venetian Causeway, Julia Tuttle Causeway, John F. Kennedy Causeway, Broad Causeway, and Haulover Bridge. A mixed logit model is presented to identify the determining factors for evacuees from Miami Beach in selecting one of these bridges during a major hurricane. The model was developed by using data obtained from a survey that included a hypothetical Category 4 (major) hurricane scenario to reveal the most likely plans for evacuees from this area. The estimation findings suggest that the preference over a given bridge involves a complex interaction of variables, such as distance to reach the evacuation destination, evacuation-specific characteristics (evacuation day, time, mode, and destination), and evacuee-specific characteristics (gender, race, evacuation experience, and living experience). The normally distributed random parameters in the model account for the existence of unobserved heterogeneity across different observations. The findings of this study will help emergency officials and policy makers to develop efficient operational measures and better evacuation plans for a major hurricane by determining different fractions of people taking each of the six bridges.

01582737

15-4340

English

pp 164–173

2015

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309369152

Print

Figures (2) ; Maps; References (74) ; Tables (3)

Bridges; Causeways; Disaster preparedness; Emergency management; Evacuation; Hurricanes; Infrastructure; Logistics; Routes and routing

Miami Beach (Florida)

Bridges and other structures; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Security and Emergencies; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

PRP, TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 30 2014 1:25PM

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