01556582

Component

The development of integrated techniques to evaluate long-term urban trends is a top priority to create a more sustainable society. The purpose of this paper is to design a methodology to estimate long-term tour generation and its impacts on urban mobility in developing cities. The methodology integrates a work/study-related tour generation model and a Land-Use and Transport interaction (LUTI) model in order to capture the feedback mechanisms that may affect tour generation in the long term. The tour generation model is developed from a cross-sectional household mobility survey carried out in Bogotá in 2011. Multiple linear regression analysis is used to investigate and model the effect of income, household size and structure, car ownership, population density and mixed-land uses on the number of tours generated by a household in an average weekday. The proposed methodology then integrates this model into a LUTI model that uses Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) from systems dynamics to explain cause and effect relations, linking the household characteristics, economic growth and transportation subsystems. The LUTI model that is adopted in this methodology has been benchmarked against other published models to compare its features and capabilities. Bogotá (Colombia) currently has a population close to 8 million and is one of the most densely populated urban areas in the world. In the last decade, Bogotá experienced a rapid economic growth, having an average annual increasing rate of GDP per capita of 2.9% in real terms. The integration of the tour generation and LUTI models allows for a discussion on the suitability of the proposed modeling approach in order to test several scenarios with high growths of motorization rates, and the possible advantages (or disadvantages) associated with it, thus providing useful knowledge that will inspire future research on the evaluation of complex transportation policies in developing cities.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADD20 Social and Economic Factors of Transportation. Alternate title: Projection of Travel Demand: A Dynamic Model Approach Considering the Feedback Mechanisms of Accessibility.

01550057

15-2359

English

17p

2015

Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Automobile ownership; Forecasting; Mobility; Multiple regression analysis; Sustainable development; Transportation policy; Travel demand; Travel surveys; Trip generation

Developing cities; Land use transport interaction models

Bogota (Colombia)

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2015 Paper #15-2359

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 30 2014 12:50PM