01554169

Component

Transportation engineers use multi-regional input-output (MRIO) tables for freight demand modelling, as well as for studying the relationship between spatial economic and transport systems. Unfortunately there is often a lack of reliable, consistent, and available MRIO data at the regional level. This paper presents a new method for estimating interregional trade flows using transportation survey data when there are no regional MRIO data available. Regional production and consumption totals do not need to be specified exogenously, since regional Make and Use tables are estimated simultaneously with interregional trade flows. Explicit attention is paid to the difference between commodity flows and trade flows, resulting in a conversion of observed commodity flows in the transportation survey data to expected trade flows consistent with the MRIO framework. When an observed commodity flow originates or terminates at a transhipment point, the production origin or consumption destination is estimated probabilistically. A real-world case study demonstrates that mathematical optimization can be used to simultaneously produce consistent estimates of interregional trade flows and regional Make and Use tables, while preserving the patterns in their initial estimates derived from data describing employment, population, and commodity flows in the regions.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADD10 Transportation and Economic Development.

01550057

15-2113

English

18p

2015

Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Case studies; Commodity flow; Freight transportation; Input output models; Optimization; Origin and destination; Regional economics; Trade

Economics; Freight Transportation; I10: Economics and Administration

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2015 Paper #15-2113

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 30 2014 12:45PM