01519721

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2465-05

This study systematically evaluated the changes in motor vehicle crashes that occurred on the Missouri Interstate highway system following the implementation of the Missouri Strategic Highway Safety Plan (MSHSP) between 2004 and 2007. The MSHSP implemented crash injury reduction strategies in enforcement, education, engineering, and public policy. Empirical Bayesian methods were commonly used to evaluate the effects of any change in safety as a result of countermeasures. This paper presents a simple new approach to evaluating the effects of Missouri’s safety plans on roadway crashes. For crash data associated with traffic and roadway characteristics, negative binomial regression models were developed for the before-through-change conditions using a variable that was set to zero for preimplementation years and gradually increased over the implementation years to reach a plateau at the conclusion of the safety plans. The models developed for the various collision types and crash severities were used to estimate the expected number of crashes at roadway segments in 2008, assuming with and without the implementation of MSHSP. This procedure estimated significant reductions of 10% in the overall number of crashes and a 30% reduction for fatal crashes. Reductions in the number of collision types were estimated to be 18% to 37%. The theoretical results indicated that the MSHSP was a successful policy in reducing the number of crashes and decreasing fatalities by reducing the most severe collision types such as head-on crashes. The results are also consistent with many international studies and suggested that the safety strategic plans should be promoted as an effective treatment for highways.

01552975

14-4755

English

pp 33–39

2014

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309295604

Print

Figures (2) ; References (36) ; Tables (3)

Before and after studies; Highway safety; Policy; Regression analysis; Strategic planning; Traffic safety education

Strategic Highway Safety Plan

Missouri

Highways; Policy; Safety and Human Factors; I10: Economics and Administration; I82: Accidents and Transport Infrastructure; I83: Accidents and the Human Factor

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 27 2014 3:40PM

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