01519587

Component

High Speed Rail (HSR) is part of the Trans-European Transport Network and, as such, large investments have been made in Europe since the late 1980's, and are expected to continue. Despite the current economic crisis, it is foreseeable that Portugal will pursue its HSR project in the medium to long term. The main objective of the present research is to model the strategic behavior of passenger transport operators that compete with HSR in a multi-modal corridor. As such, the authors analyze the potential changes in the strategies of existing operators after the (hypothetical) entry of HSR, applying their methodology to the case study of the link between Lisbon and Oporto, in Portugal. The authors' results indicate that the game theoretical approach using the optimization algorithm proposed is appropriate to simulate the operators’ strategic behavior in the face of new competition in a multimodal corridor. After the optimization and according to the authors' assumptions, the HSR operator could potentially double the currently estimated profits, while the airline could try to minimize losses, possibly by collaborating with the HSR and avoiding costly connecting flights between Lisbon and Oporto. The HSR can become a threat to conventional rail if the current operator is not allowed to bid for the concession of HSR. Alternatively, it can collaborate with the HSR as a feeder and try to explore new market segments in the currently over-saturated link. Buses are the main winners as operators could potentially increase ticket prices, while increasing headways, and still increase their profits, despite some loss in modal share. The proposed approach aims to allow transportation companies or authorities to estimate new traffic shares due to appearance of a new competitor.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AR010 Intercity Passenger Rail. Alternate title: Simulating the Impact of High-Speed Network on Performance of Other Transport Operators: High-Speed Rail on Lisbon-Oporto Link

01503729

14-4234

English

18p

2014

Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Game theory; High speed rail; Simulation; Strategic planning

Lisbon (Portugal); Porto (Portugal)

Planning and Forecasting; Railroads; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2014 Paper #14-4234

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 27 2014 3:27PM