TRB Pubsindex
Text Size:
x

« Prev Next »

Return to Results | New Search

Bookmark and Share

Title:

A Prospect Theory Approach to Estimating the Use of Managed Lanes

Accession Number:

01520057

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

Transportation Research Board Business Office

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Abstract:

Most previous research that models travelers' behavior in using managed lanes (MLs) versus a toll-free route has derived the individual’s route-choice decision using a utility maximization approach. More recent models incorporate risk and are based on expected utility theory (EUT). However, violations of key assumptions of EUT have led to the development of nonexpected utility theories, among which is prospect theory (PT). This study examined if PT is superior to EUT when predicting and understanding travelers’ behavior in the case of MLs by embedding PT proposed value function and probability weighting functions in the utility estimation. This study uses survey data from 2012 and provides estimates of the value that travelers are willing to pay for travel time savings on MLs from the EUT and PT approaches. Estimates from the EUT and PT approaches are compared and the authors find that Katy Freeway travelers are more risk averse when in a situation of being late than they are with potential savings in travel time, and they, on average, demonstrate a sense of optimism when the chances of facing a longer travel time are high. Compared to previously available route choice studies, the relatively low WTP (willingness to pay) measures calculated in this study may deserve further investigation. Examination of the predictive ability of mode choice of the EUT-based and PT- based models indicates that models embedding the probability weighting outperform models without such weighting. On average, models with weighting result in 70% of all mode choices correctly predicted, while unweighted models predict only 45% of choices correctly.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB10 Traveler Behavior and Values. Alternate title: Prospect Theory Approach to Estimating the Use of Managed Lanes

Monograph Accession #:

01503729

Report/Paper Numbers:

14-3238

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Huang, Chao

ORCID 0000-0002-6034-8637

Burris, Mark
Shaw, W Douglass

Pagination:

24p

Publication Date:

2014

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC
Date: 2014-1-12 to 2014-1-16
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References; Tables

Identifier Terms:

Katy Freeway (Houston, Texas)

Subject Areas:

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning; I73: Traffic Control

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2014 Paper #14-3238

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Jan 27 2014 3:07PM