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Title:

Pattern-Based Bus Travel Time Prediction under Heterogeneous Traffic Conditions

Accession Number:

01520008

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

Transportation Research Board Business Office

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Abstract:

In recent times, congestion levels have been increasing in Indian cities due to rapid changes in urbanization, which will lead to several negative impacts such as delays and pollution. There is a need to explore better traffic operations and management systems to overcome these problems. Attracting more travelers towards public transport from personal vehicles is one of the ways to reduce congestion levels. In this context, provision of next bus arrival time information at bus stops to passengers will help improve the situation. This comes under Advanced Public Transportation Systems (APTS), a major functional area of Intelligent Transportation Systems. The reliability of such information provided to passengers depends on the prediction method used, which in turns depends on the input data used in the method, which means that identifying the most significant/appropriate input data and using them in the method is important. So, in the present study, travel time pattern analysis was carried out to find the most significant inputs by performing valid statistical tests for each day of the week separately. Also, a model-based Kalman filtering algorithm was developed to predict bus travel time by using the identified patterns effectively based on temporal discretization under heterogeneous traffic conditions. The performance of the proposed algorithm shows a clear improvement in prediction accuracy when compared with a prediction method using space discretization.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AP020 Emerging and Innovative Public Transport and Technologies. Alternate title: Pattern-Based Bus Arrival Time Prediction Under Heterogeneous Traffic Conditions

Monograph Accession #:

01503729

Report/Paper Numbers:

14-2513

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Kumar, B Anil
Vanajakshi, Lelitha Devi
Subramanian, Shankar C

Pagination:

16p

Publication Date:

2014

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC
Date: 2014-1-12 to 2014-1-16
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References; Tables

Geographic Terms:

India

Subject Areas:

Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2014 Paper #14-2513

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Jan 27 2014 2:52PM