01515125

Component

Integrated land use and transportation forecasting models are used to assist decision makers in the policy analysis and infrastructure capital improvements selection process. These models are typically given precise, point-estimate inputs that are mathematically linked, through a series of submodels, to forecasted model outputs. These point-estimate inputs represent an unrealistic level of precision and a growing body of research is focusing on statistical techniques to model uncertainty in model inputs and parameters and tracking the effects of this uncertainty through the various submodels to the model outputs. The purpose of the paper is to present an uncertainty analysis of the Large Zone Economic Module (LZEM) of the Simple, Efficient, Elegant, and Effective Model [SE(3)M] of land use and transportation. Three case study implementations of the model are used to obtain a fairly complete picture of how uncertainty affects LZEM outputs. The three case studies are: Guam, Puerto Rico, and Oahu, Hawaii. These three case studies were the subject of an early transferability study with SE(3)M and were selected based on both their insularity and their diverse physical, economic, and demographic geographies. The findings of this research demonstrate that LZEM has a robust framework, with the potential to estimate error both in the positive and negative direction under uncertain input/parameter conditions.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB40(2) Integrated Transportation and Land Use Modeling. Alternate title: Uncertainty Analysis of Large-Zone Economic Module of Simple, Efficient, Elegant, and Effective Model of Land Use and Transportation.

01503729

14-1794

English

30p

2014

Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Case studies; Decision making; Economic forecasting; Forecasting; Land use; Policy analysis; Uncertainty

Guam; Oahu (Hawaii); Puerto Rico

Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2014 Paper #14-1794

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 27 2014 2:39PM