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Title:

Impact of Distribution Choice for Representing Input Variation: Analysis of Uncertainty in Travel Demand Simulation in Context of Information Shortage

Accession Number:

01478297

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

Transportation Research Board Business Office

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States
Order URL: http://www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/169766.aspx

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Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/9780309286718

Abstract:

Uncertainty and risk analysis is becoming an ever-increasing part of transport demand forecasting because it can significantly influence the feasibility of a transportation project. Probabilistic assessment using Monte Carlo simulation is one of the most common approaches to uncertainty evaluation. This method implies generating random draws from probability distributions for the input variables. Often the empirical data that allow fitting the distribution are not available or involve additional costs to be obtained. In this case, the modeler makes an assumption of the shape of the probability distribution and its parameters in a context of information shortage, and this assumption introduces additional error to the uncertainty analysis. The main goal of this study is to quantify the impact of the distribution choice on the estimates of the model uncertainty present in its attributes and, more specifically, of its shape, skewness, and correlations among variables by using the case study of a high-speed railway project in Portugal. The results suggest that the mode location of the distribution, its shape, and correlations significantly affect the outcome of the uncertainty analysis.

Monograph Accession #:

01498550

Report/Paper Numbers:

13-4688

Language:

English

Authors:

Petrik, Olga
de Abreu e Silva, João
Moura, Filipe Manuel Mercier Vilaça e

Pagination:

pp 40–48

Publication Date:

2013

Serial:

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

Issue Number: 2344
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
ISSN: 0361-1981

ISBN:

9780309286718

Media Type:

Print

Features:

Figures (3) ; References (35) ; Tables (3)

Geographic Terms:

Portugal

Subject Areas:

Planning and Forecasting; Railroads; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Feb 5 2013 12:54PM

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