01473957

Component

Electric vehicles are expected to significantly reduce road transport emissions, given an increasingly renewable power generation. While technological issues are more and more being overcome, the economic viability and thus possible adoption is still constrained, mainly by higher prices than for conventional vehicles. However, first vehicles have been available on the market for some time now and many more are expected to arrive soon and at decreasing cost. In this paper the authors analyze the possible market development for electric vehicles with an application to Germany. The authors develop a drivetrain choice model with economical, technical and social constraints on the current vehicle registrations and inventory. It estimates the demand for electric vehicles until 2030 for private and commercially registered cars as well as light commercial vehicles. The results show a replacement potential of more than one fourth of the total German annual mileage for these vehicles. The result has a high granularity to allow for detailed emission calculation along different spatial areas as well as vehicle and engine types. Besides a baseline forecast, the authors method allows for calculating different scenarios regarding policy actions or the future development of important parameters such as energy prices. The results provide insights for policy measures as well as for transport and environmental modeling.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB10 Traveler Behavior and Values.

01470560

13-3871

English

16p

2013

Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Choice models; Demand; Electric vehicles; Market development; Pollutants; Power trains; Renewable energy sources

Germany

Environment; Highways; Vehicles and Equipment; I15: Environment; I96: Vehicle Operating Costs

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2013 Paper #13-3871

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 5 2013 12:45PM