01474261

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2346-05

http://scholar.google.com...+Zhu&publication_year=2013

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), through its Leadership Initiative for Transportation Solvency, in 2011 released Road to Recovery: Transforming America’s Transportation, a report that proposed a new revenue mechanism to fund a reformed transportation program fully. The report recommends that Congress couple a per barrel oil fee with a variable, countercyclical gas tax. This paper discusses the dynamic impacts of CEIP’s revenue policy on household travel behavior, revenue generation for the federal trust fund, energy consumption, equity, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollution at the national level from 2008 to 2010. The analysis developed econometric models: a multiple vehicle miles traveled (VMT) regression model and a discrete vehicle ownership model. Model results showed that the CEIP revenue proposal could fill the revenue shortfall regardless of the world oil price. During the historic study period of 2008 to 2010, the CEIP policy would have collected up to more than double the federal revenue. At the same time, households would have increased their VMT by as much as 1.8% when oil prices peaked, and reduced their VMT by up to 8.6% when the crude oil price dropped to the lowest point. It is estimated that, without any investments or revenue recycling, lower-income households would have experienced a 0.45% to 0.5% reduction in consumer surplus changes measured as a percentage of income and higher-income households would have experienced a 0.06% to 0.1% reduction. Finally, it is estimated that the CEIP policy would have reduced air pollution and GHG emissions by an average 4% to 4.35% for different pollutant types.

01499884

13-3158

English

pp 40–48

2013

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309286848

Print

Figures (2) ; References (16) ; Tables (3)

Air pollution; Econometrics; Energy consumption; Equity; Fees; Fuel taxes; Greenhouse gases; Policy analysis; Prices; Revenues; Taxation; Travel behavior

Economics; Finance; Highways; Policy; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 5 2013 12:38PM

• Comparing Public–Private Partnerships with Conventional Procurement: Incorporating Considerations from Benefit–Cost Analysis
• Economic Assessment of Public Rest Areas and Traveler Information Centers on Limited-Access Freeways
• Fuel Tax Evasion via the Fuel Tax Refund Process
• Integration of Congestion Pricing and Intertemporal Preference Rate in Social Welfare Function
• Key Considerations for States Seeking to Implement Public–Private Partnerships for New Highway Capacity
• Minimizing the Impacts of Cost and Revenue Uncertainties on Transportation Project Delivery
• Transit Impact Fee: Enabling Statutes and Equity Concerns