01476816

Component

This paper proposes a framework based on stochastic cusp catastrophe theory to model microscopic freeway traffic flow. The approach considers that each driver - regardless of being aggressive or timid - may shift his/her behavior and behave aggressively or timidly during driving. Based on the proposed modeling approach, the spacing a driver choses is a function of its speed and acceleration. Moreover, the driver’s behavior encompasses two equilibrium states -being aggressive or timid - and any shift between these states is considered to occur as a catastrophe phenomenon. Different models are developed with variable sampling interval, while some of them encompass memory properties. Results show that the cusp catastrophe model may accurately describe microscopic traffic, especially when compared to linear or logistic models. Results for models with induced memory are even more promising. Considering the proposed method, preliminary results on the critical regions of breakdown conditions or attitude shifting are described and discussed.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AHB45 Traffic Flow Theory and Characteristics.

01470560

13-2755

English

19p

2013

Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Aggression; Catastrophe theory; Drivers; Methodology; Microscopic traffic flow

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; I70: Traffic and Transport

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2013 Paper #13-2755

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 5 2013 12:34PM