01474142

Component

The objectives of this study are twofold: 1) to develop an integrated approach analyzing vehicle type choice, annual travelling distance, and holding duration and 2) to demonstrate the changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions under different taxation policies. In order to develop the integrated approach, focusing on stages of vehicle usage and vehicle ownership, this study proposes a Copula-based Multivariate Survival (CMS) model of holding duration and annual travelling distance. A Paired Combination Logit (PCL) is applied in order to model the vehicle type choice, and then the estimated PCL model is further incorporated into the CMS model. An empirical analysis was carried out by using a data set collected in the Chugoku region of Japan, 2006. Model estimation results empirically confirmed the effectiveness of the suggested approach. The estimation results also showed that the vehicle holding duration has the negative correlations with expected utilities of vehicle type choice and with vehicle usage. Through the simulation analysis about vehicle-related taxes, it was clarified that to increase fuel tax is the most effective in to reducing the CO2 emissions, followed by auto tax and weight tax at the vehicle inspection. Moreover, it was observed that the increases in acquisition tax contribute to increase CO2 emissions.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADC70 Transportation Energy.

01470560

13-2478

English

19p

2013

Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Automobile ownership; Automobile travel; Carbon dioxide; Pollutants; Rural areas; Taxation; Types of taxes

Copula-based models

Japan

Environment; Finance; Highways; I15: Environment

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2013 Paper #13-2478

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 5 2013 12:32PM