01363261

Component

Assessment and mitigation of current risks inherent in the Delaware River and Bay (DRB) vessel traffic require the development of a post-incident recovery strategy. In this work, a model-based risk analysis in the DRB area was carried out to identify which zones of the river have higher risks, what the magnitudes are and what the possible mitigation measures may be. First a probabilistic risk model was developed considering all possible accidents as suggested by the historical data in DRB. Expert opinion elicitation process helped computing the unknown accident and consequence probabilities for various situations. Next, the risk model was incorporated into a simulation model to be able to evaluate risks and to produce a risk profile of the entire river. A scenario analysis is planned to be performed in the end in order to study the behavior of accident risks over time and geographic domain. The approach can be implemented to evaluate risks in other systems of interest as well.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AW040 Marine Safety and Human Factors

01362476

12-4753

English

14p

2012

Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Crash risk forecasting; Decision making; Hazard mitigation; Risk analysis; Simulation; Water traffic; Water transportation crashes

Delaware River

Marine Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2012 Paper #12-4753

PRP, TRIS, TRB

Feb 8 2012 5:26PM