01363053

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2312-17

http://scholar.google.com...shon&publication_year=2012

The decision of whether and when to evacuate can be characterized as decision making under risk. Presently, most models assume linear utility functions through which it is impossible to disentangle factors that influence risk attitudes and other factors that affect decision making under risk. There is a need to disentangle and study factors that affect risk attitudes from factors that affect an evacuee’s preparation time. The aim in doing so is to provide planners and practitioners with an ability to measure a person’s risk attitude and develop appropriate strategies that could motivate people to evacuate. This study is expected to connect the theory of risk developed in economic theory with behavior under threat. The paper uses the Hurricane Andrew response data in conjunction with time-dependent data on the probability of a hurricane strike and the category of the hurricane data to develop a model for evacuation departure choice. A constant relative risk aversion specification is used to model risk attitudes. The process of an evacuation is abstracted as an individual being given a choice between two lotteries: either to stay or leave. The results show that the model is able to predict the total number of evacuees and the time varying evacuation rates with reasonable accuracy. Factors such as time of day, length of time spent in a region, and whether a mandatory evacuation order was issued affected risk attitudes. The presence of children affected the amount of time spent preparing if the family decided to stay.

01470175

12-4263

English

pp 159–163

2012

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309263108

Print

Figures; References; Tables

Attitudes; Behavior; Choice models; Decision making; Evacuation; Hurricanes; Mathematical models; Risk taking; Strategic planning

Hurricane Andrew, 1992

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 8 2012 5:23PM

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• Statistical Analysis and Development of Crash Prediction Model for Roundabouts on High-Speed Rural Roadways
• Travel Time Reliability During Evacuation: Impact of Heterogeneous Driving Behavior
• Turning Angle Effect on Emergency Egress: Experimental Evidence and Pedestrian Crowd Simulation
• Use of Regional Transportation Planning Tool for Modeling Emergency Evacuation: Case Study of Northern New Jersey