01363060

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2312-09

http://scholar.google.com...egie&publication_year=2012

Evacuation modeling and analysis are concerned primarily with identifying the types of traffic movements associated with a disaster evacuation, as well as the estimation of evacuation and clearance times. Thus, an efficient evacuation planning model is important in determining evacuation times, identifying critical locations in the transportation network, and assessing traffic operations strategies and evacuation policies. In this paper various scenarios, including a hurricane, a toxic chemical leak, dirty bombs, and a nuclear event, are studied to understand the evacuation and highway network effects of the evacuating population. Unlike corridor studies or bottleneck studies found in the literature, a network model with equilibrium assignment is used. The scenarios are tested with a case study of Northern New Jersey, modeled with the North Jersey Regional Transportation Model–Enhanced, a large-scale travel demand model of the region. The results presented in this paper focus on the effect of several assumptions and input data on the evacuation estimates, giving planners an idea of the necessary considerations for evacuation planning with a modeling context. The experience with this study shows that regional planning models are suitable tools to model evacuation; however, the modeler must be careful in their use. Multiple methodologies can be used, and assumptions, such as time of day, notice or no-notice, passengers per car, and background traffic in the network, have wide-ranging effects.

01470175

12-3762

English

pp 89–97

2012

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309263108

Print

Figures; References; Tables

Case studies; Disasters and emergency operations; Evacuation; Highway operations; Traffic equilibrium; Travel demand

Network models

Northern New Jersey

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 8 2012 5:19PM

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• Travel Time Reliability During Evacuation: Impact of Heterogeneous Driving Behavior
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