TRB Pubsindex
Text Size:
x

« Prev Next »

Return to Results | New Search

Bookmark and Share

Title:

Predicting Runway Configurations at Airports

Accession Number:

01365442

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

The ability to predict an airport’s capacity can influence strategic decisions and ultimately the performance of the National Airspace System. One factor that directly impacts an airport’s capacity is its runway configuration. The ability to predict runway configurations would not only contribute to understanding how configurations are chosen but also aid in predicting an airport’s capacity. This analysis identifies a set of general (i.e., non-airport specific), predictable factors that affect runway configurations and derives a model that predicts runway configurations using these factors. The authors constrain the study to the LaGuardia (LGA) and John F. Kennedy (JFK) airports and limit the number of variables to perform a more manageable analysis. Variables include scheduled demand, fleet mix, weather conditions, time of year, and time of day. They use a binomial logistic regression to compute probabilities for each runway configuration and then select the configuration with the highest probability of occurring in a specific time period. Six test scenarios are developed to determine the effect of different combinations of independent variables on predicting runway configurations. The most accurate models for these airports can accurately predict 75% and 63% of the observations for LGA and JFK respectively. Wind speed and direction are significant factors in determining runway configurations at LGA, whereas time of year and time of day impact JFK runway configurations. This study provides insight into which factors have the strongest influence on runway configurations at particular airports and argues for identifying a collection of variables for which a subset can be used on specific airports.

Monograph Accession #:

01362476

Report/Paper Numbers:

12-3682

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Houston, Stephanie
Murphy, Daniel

Pagination:

11p

Publication Date:

2012

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2012-1-22 to 2012-1-26
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References; Tables

Subject Areas:

Aviation; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2012 Paper #12-3682

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

Feb 8 2012 5:18PM