01372653

Component

A bus arrival prediction system has several components such as automated real time data collection, communication, data base generation, data analysis, prediction algorithm, and information dissemination. Such systems are already implemented in many western countries. However, they are just being developed in countries like India where automated traffic data collection is still in its infancy. This paper presents the development of a completely automated bus arrival time prediction system prototype for such traffic conditions, integrating all the above components. The reported bus arrival prediction system uses real-time data from GPS units installed in public transport buses. The algorithm developed was a model-based approach using Kalman filtering technique. Travel time data from the previous two buses that plied the same route were used as inputs for the algorithm, obviating the need for a historic data base. The development of a fully automated, real-time system involved solving many practical problems such as automated data quality control, communication delays, integration of real time data with the algorithm, taking into account practical difficulties such as bus break down, congestion, overtaking, traffic jam, and common India-specific difficulties such as abrupt stoppage of services, unscheduled changes in routes, and frequent shifting of buses from one route to another. The predicted arrival time information can be disseminated to the passengers through display boards in bus stops and buses. Travel time information for selected origin destination can be disseminated through web sites and SMS as well. This involves integration of the output of the algorithm with the information display systems, which is also carried out in the study. The complete system developed can be used for on-field bus arrival prediction wherever buses are equipped with automated vehicle location systems.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AP050 Bus Transit Systems

01362476

12-2187

English

14p

2012

Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Advanced public transportation systems; Bus transit operations; Intelligent transportation systems; Kalman filtering; Prototypes; Real time data processing; Travel time

Arrival time (Bus transit)

India

Data and Information Technology; Operations and Traffic Management; Passenger Transportation; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2012 Paper #12-2187

TRIS, TRB

Feb 8 2012 5:08PM