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Title:

A Seasonal Autoregressive Model of Vancouver Bicycle Traffic Using Weather Variables
Cover of A Seasonal Autoregressive Model of Vancouver Bicycle Traffic Using Weather Variables

Accession Number:

01365554

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

This paper uses hourly bicycle counts and weather data that are continuous and year-round to model bicycle traffic in Vancouver, Canada. The study uses seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analysis to account for complex serial correlation patterns in the error terms and tests the model against actual bicycle traffic counts. Temperature, rain, rain in the previous 3 hours and humidity are all found to be significant, with clearness found to be marginally significant at the 10% level. The combined effect of rain and its lags is close to 24% of the average hourly bicycle traffic counts, which is larger than the impact of it being a holiday or a Saturday, although the impact of it being a Sunday is still larger. An increase of one degree Celsius from the mean is generally found to increase bicycle traffic counts by 1.65%, so an increase of 10 degrees would increase bicycle traffic by 16.5%. The coefficients on humidity and clearness are small. A decrease in bicycle traffic of only 0.08% is observed per unit change in relative humidity and 0.62% at each of the four transitions between categories of cloudy to perfectly clear skies.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ANF20 Bicycle Transportation

Monograph Accession #:

01362476

Report/Paper Numbers:

12-2119

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Gallop, Christopher
Tse, Cindy
Zhao, Jinhua

Pagination:

17p

Publication Date:

2012

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2012-1-22 to 2012-1-26
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References; Tables

Uncontrolled Terms:

Autoregressive models

Geographic Terms:

Vancouver (Canada)

Subject Areas:

Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2012 Paper #12-2119

Files:

PRP, TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

Feb 8 2012 5:07PM