01366390

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2286-07

http://scholar.google.com...Meng&publication_year=2012

Accurate estimation of work zone capacity is necessary for successful traffic control management at work zones. This study uses an ensemble tree approach to estimate work zone capacity more accurately than would a model that was based on a single decision tree. A bootstrap aggregation method is used to build an ensemble tree comprising a set of individual decision trees. In this method, a set of bootstrap samples is generated by sampling with replacement from a training sample. A set of individual trees is then constructed with a tree learning algorithm and combined through averaging of the output. Data on work zone capacity from 14 states and cities are used in a case study to build and evaluate the ensemble tree. The results of the statistical comparison demonstrate that the ensemble tree outperforms the existing models of work zone capacity in estimation accuracy. The ensemble tree also performs better than any single decision tree for stability. A comparison with the 2010 Highway Capacity Manual indicates that the ensemble tree can provide a more accurate estimate of work zone capacity. Unlike the manual’s model, the ensemble tree avoids estimated errors caused by subjective judgments of users because it does not require manual setting of various adjustment factors. Because of its high estimation accuracy and stability, the ensemble tree is a good alternative for estimating work zone capacity, especially for inexperienced users.

01450371

12-1033

English

pp 56–67

2012

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309223263

Print

Figures; References; Tables

Decision trees; Highway capacity; Mathematical models; Work zone traffic control

Highway Capacity Manual 2010

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; I73: Traffic Control

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 8 2012 4:59PM

• Calibration and Validation of Highway Capacity Manual 2010 Capacity Model for Single-Lane Roundabouts
• Deterministic Approach to Managed Lane Analysis on Freeways in Context of Highway Capacity Manual
• Effect of Inclement Weather on Two Capacity Flows at Recurring Freeway Bottlenecks
• Equilibrium of Probabilities for Estimating Distribution Function of Critical Gaps at Unsignalized Intersections
• Estimating Right-Turn-on-Red Capacity for Dual Right-Turn Lanes at Signalized Intersections
• Estimation of Capacity Drop in Highway Merging Sections
• Evaluating the Effects of Signal Countdown Timers on Queue Discharge Characteristics at Signalized Intersections in China
• Evaluating the Operational Impact of Left-Turn Waiting Areas at Signalized Intersections in China
• Field Data for Evaluating 2010 Highway Capacity Manual Operational Analysis Methodology for Interchange Ramp Terminals
• Implementing Auxiliary Through Lanes in Context of Highway Capacity Analysis
• Models for Estimating Drivers Following on Two-Lane Rural Highways
• Operational Performance and Speed–Flow Relationships for Basic Managed Lane Segments
• Rationale for Incorporating Queue Discharge Flow into Highway Capacity Manual Procedure for Analysis of Freeway Facilities