01340113

Component

This paper attempts to evaluate drivers’ perceived cost evolution, in order to explain the traffic dynamics on the Twin Cities road network after the unexpected collapse of the I-35W Bridge over the Mississippi River. The authors previous study has unveiled an avoidance phenomenon, where demand in areas near the bridge drastically drops following collapse and gradually recovers to pre-collapse demands. Given the observation of largely underutilized sections of network, it is proposed that the tragedy generated a perceived travel cost to discourage commuters from using these sections. Calculated by solving a mathematical programming problem, the perceived costs on cordon lines after the I-35W Bridge collapse are found to be best described as an exponential decay cost curve. After reinstituting this calibrated cost curve into a mesoscopic traffic simulator, the simulated demands into the discouraged areas are generated within acceptable limits of the observed demands on a week-by-week basis. The proposed model is applicable to both practitioners and researchers in traffic-related fields by providing an understanding of how traffic dynamics will evolve after a long-term, unexpected network disruption.

The DVD lists the title of this paper as: Uncovering the Perceived Cost Evolution in the Avoidance Phenomenon After I-35W Bridge Collapse.

01329018

11-3701

English

18p

2011

Transportation Research Board 90th Annual Meeting

DVD

Figures (4) ; References; Tables (4)

Collapse; Demand; Mathematical methods; Traffic simulation; Travel costs

Minneapolis Bridge Collapse, 2007

Cost curves; Traffic network disruption

Bridges and other structures; Economics; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2011 Paper #11-3701

TRIS, TRB

Feb 17 2011 6:36PM