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Title:

Backcasting for Sustainable Transportation Planning

Accession Number:

01337723

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

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Washington, DC 20001 USA
Order URL: http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/166535.aspx

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Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/9780309167628

Abstract:

Transportation problems are often sustainability problems and as such are complex, long-reaching, and difficult to address through incremental policies. Planning for these problems requires analyzing future conditions of the transportation system and the systems with which it interacts. Traditional futures studies using the forecasting method do not deal adequately with the uncertainty inherent in long-term studies of transportation problems. This paper reviews recent innovations in futures studies and their applications to planning studies for transportation system sustainability. The new methods, including scenario planning, backcasting (determining policy to meet future end point), and strategic sustainability assessment, involve both qualitative assessment and scientific models to create and analyze future states. In particular, the paper focuses on backcasting as an alternative to forecasting for scenario building and provides examples of how the method has been applied in the transportation sector. The review suggests that backcasting is a better option for analyzing transportation sustainability problems because it is an action-oriented approach focused on creating desirable future images and developing effective policies for achieving them.

Monograph Accession #:

01362315

Report Numbers:

11-1637

Language:

English

Authors:

Barrella, Elise

Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta

Amekudzi, Adjo A

Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta

Pagination:

pp 29-36

Publication Date:

2011

Serial:

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

Issue Number: 2242
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
ISSN: 0361-1981

ISBN:

9780309167628

Media Type:

Print

Features:

Figures (1) ; References (27) ; Tables (1)

Uncontrolled Terms:

Backcasting

Subject Areas:

Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Last Modified:

Feb 7 2012 11:34AM

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