Site Logo
x

Title:

Climate Sensitive Transportation Management: Evaluating Alternative Goals for Traffic Growth

Accession Number:

01126834

Language:

English

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2009 Paper #09-3541

Abstract:

This paper illustrates a methodology to evaluate alternative national traffic growth goals against greenhouse gas reduction goals, considering motor vehicle fleet characteristics and fuel policies. Several alternative scenarios are evaluated, ranging from historic trends to a "Climate Sensitive Transportation Management" (CSTM) policy that would seek to stabilize U.S. vehicle miles traveled (VMT) at projected 2010 levels through 2050. Achieving such goals while supporting healthy economic growth would require a combination of policies to boost the spatial efficiency of population and employment growth, expand travel choices, and increase vehicle occupancy and network efficiency, borrowing from approaches used in other advanced economies. U.S. VMT has been flat to declining since 2004, suggesting that historical VMT trends may no longer be useful guides to future VMT growth. If the CSTM policy is achieved, it would decrease per capita VMT back to 2000 levels by 2020, cut per capita VMT by 18% below 2010 levels by 2030, and produce a 36% reduction in per capita VMT by 2050, assuming 420 million population. By holding 2050 U.S. VMT to 2.8 trillion vs. the US DOE forecast of 5.5 trillion, a CSTM policy would cut cumulative vehicle emissions by 25 billion metric tons of CO2 (gigatons of CO2e, GtCO2e) in 2050, seven-tenths of what would be needed to achieve an 80% reduction in greenhouse gases (GHGs) from this source category by 2050 given projected fuel economy and fuels policies. In 2030 and 2040, the CSTM would cut cumulative light vehicle emissions by 7.7 and 19 GtCO2e respectively.

TRIS Files:

HRIS

Report Numbers:

09-3541

Media Type:

DVD

Pagination:

14p

Authors:

Replogle, Michael A

mreplogle@ed.org
Environmental Defense Fund

Fung, Freda

ffung@edf.org
Environmental Defense Fund

Monograph Accession #:

01120148

Publication Date:

2009

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 88th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC
Date: 2009/1/11 to 2009/1/15
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 USA

Availability:

Find a library where document is available

Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/6

Features:

Figures (3) ; References (15) ; Tables (3)

Index Terms:

Climate change; Exhaust gases; Greenhouse gases; Mode choice; Pollutants; Sensitivity analysis; Traffic growth; Trip generation; Vehicle miles of travel

Subject Areas:

Environment; Highways; I15: Environment

Last Modified:

Apr 17 2009 9:56AM