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Title:

Factors Affecting Airport Weather Delay and the Impact of Climate Change

Accession Number:

01126852

Language:

English

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2009 Paper #09-0121

Abstract:

This paper evaluates the impact of changing weather on air transport operations over the coming 50 years, using a case study of London’s Heathrow airport. First the authors identify the weather parameters associated with weather-related delays at Heathrow and present statistical models for the occurrence and severity of weather delay events. Thunderstorms, snow, and fog are found to increase the chance of weather delay by more than 25%, while a increase in windspeed of 1 kt above the mean increases the probability of delay by 8%. The severity of delay can be classified correctly in 84% of cases, using nine weather predictors. These statistical models are then used in conjunction with climate forecast data to estimate future weather-related delays. Seven climate models were used to calculate changes in weather parameters in 2050 for three emission scenarios. The climate model outputs limit the range of weather parameters which can be forecast; for those which cannot be included in the model, a qualitative assessment of their potential impact on airport delay is provided.

TRIS Files:

ATRIS

Report Numbers:

09-0121

Media Type:

DVD

Pagination:

27p

Authors:

Pejovic, Tamara

tamara.pejovic@askhelios.com
Helios Limited

Williams, Victoria A

v.williams@imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London

Noland, Robert B

rnoland@rutgers.edu
Rutgers University, New Brunswick

Toumi, Ralf

r.toumi@imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London

Monograph Accession #:

01120148

Publication Date:

2009

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 88th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC
Date: 2009/1/11 to 2009/1/15
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 USA

Availability:

Find a library where document is available

Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/6

Features:

Figures (3) ; References (19) ; Tables (7)

Index Terms:

Airline delays; Airport operations; Climate change; Delays (Air traffic); Fog; Greater London; Heathrow Airport; London Metropolitan Area; London Region; Metropolitan London (England); Snowstorms; Thunderstorms; Traffic delay; Weather conditions

Subject Areas:

Aviation; Environment; Planning and Forecasting; I15: Environment

Last Modified:

Apr 17 2009 9:57AM