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Title:

Projection of Chinese Motor Vehicle Growth, Oil Demand, and CO2 Emissions Through 2050
Cover of Projection of Chinese Motor Vehicle Growth, Oil Demand, and CO2 Emissions Through 2050

Accession Number:

01043485

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

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Washington, DC 20001 USA
Order URL: http://www.trb.org/Main/Public/Blurbs/156837.aspx

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Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/9780309113021

Abstract:

During this study a methodology was developed to project growth trends of the motor vehicle population and associated oil demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China through 2050. In particular, the numbers of highway vehicles, motorcycles, and rural vehicles were projected under three scenarios of vehicle growth by following different patterns of motor vehicle growth in Europe and Asia. Projections showed that by 2030 China could have more highway vehicles than the United States has today. Three scenarios of vehicle fuel economy were also developed on the basis of current and future policy efforts to reduce vehicle fuel consumption in China and in developed countries. With the vehicle population projections and potential vehicle fuel economy data, it was projected that in 2050 China’s on-road vehicles could consume approximately 614 million to 1,016 million metric tons of oil (or 12.4 million to 20.6 million barrels per day) and emit 1.9 billion to 3.2 billion metric tons (or 2.1 billion to 3.5 billion tons) of CO2 each year. Although these projections by no means imply what will happen in the Chinese transportation sector by 2050, they do demonstrate that an uncontained growth in motor vehicles and only incremental efforts to improve fuel economy will certainly result in severe consequences for oil use and CO2 emissions in China.

Monograph Title:

Developing Countries 2007

Monograph Accession #:

01091286

Language:

English

Authors:

Huo, Hong

Argonne National Laboratory

Wang, Michael Q

Argonne National Laboratory

Johnson, Larry

Argonne National Laboratory

He, Dongquan

Energy Foundation, China

Pagination:

pp 69-77

Publication Date:

2007

Serial:

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

Issue Number: 2038
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
ISSN: 0361-1981

ISBN:

9780309113021

Media Type:

Print

Features:

Figures (3) ; References (44) ; Tables (3)

Geographic Terms:

China

Subject Areas:

Energy; Environment; Highways; I15: Environment

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Last Modified:

Apr 17 2008 8:10AM

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